Tourism volume is the primary demand driver for resort and retirement village investment in Bali. This page presents the official statistics, source market data, and forward projections in a format useful for investment modelling not for writing a tourism prospectus.
| Year | International Arrivals | Recovery vs 2019 | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 6.28 million | Baseline | Pre-COVID peak airport and hotel industry at capacity |
| 2020 | 45,000 | -99.3% | Border closed April 2020; COVID impact |
| 2021 | 52,000 | -99.2% | Minimal travel bubble activity |
| 2022 | 2.16 million | 34% of 2019 | Reopening October 2022 strong H2 recovery |
| 2023 | 5.27 million | 84% of 2019 | Rapid recovery Ubud resorts back to 70 to 78% occupancy by Q4 |
| 2024 | Approximately 6.1 million | 97% | Effective recovery to pre-COVID volumes |
| 2025 | Approximately 6.28 million | 100% | 2019 peak matched new direct routes adding capacity |
| Year | Bali Total Arrivals | Karangasem Visitor Nights | Karangasem Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 6.28 million | 640,000 | ~4.2% |
| 2024 | ~6.1 million | 870,000 (est.) | ~5.7% |
| Change | +Flat vs 2019 | +36% above 2019 | Share growing |
Karangasem Regency is outperforming the Bali average in recovery not just returning to 2019 levels but exceeding them. This reflects the structural demand migration from South Bali toward less commercialised destinations that was already visible before COVID and accelerated during the recovery period.
| Source Market | Share of East Bali International Overnight Visitors | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Europe (DE, NL, FR, UK combined) | 34% | Adventure, culture, nature-seeking independent travellers |
| Australia | 21% | Strongest historical relationship with Bali; growing interest in non-South Bali destinations |
| Other Asia Pacific (SG, KR, TW) | 12% | Short-haul luxury and wellness travel |
| Japan | 11% | Cultural tourism; recovering post-COVID outbound |
| USA and Canada | 8% | Growing driven by eco-luxury and “off the beaten track” travel media |
| China | 9% | Primarily day-tripping from South Bali hotels |
| Other | 5% | Diverse includes Middle East and India growing segments |
Karangasem Regency is outperforming the Bali average in recovery not just returning to 2019 levels but exceeding them. This reflects the structural demand migration from South Bali toward less commercialised destinations that was already visible before COVID and accelerated during the recovery period.
| Year | Conservative Case | Base Case | Optimistic Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1,004,000 | 1,044,000 | 1,120,000 |
| 2027 | 1,280,000 | 1,403,000 | 1,580,000 |
| 2030 | 1,740,000 | 1,936,000 | 2,200,000 |
| 2034 | 2,280,000 | 2,645,000 | 3,100,000 |
| CAGR 2024 to 2034 | 10.1% | 11.7% | 13.5% |
Projections based on: Kemenparekraf Tourism Development Master Plan 2024 to 2029; UNWTO Southeast Asia Regional Outlook 2025; ADB Indonesia Tourism Sector Assessment 2024. Base case assumes Bali-wide arrival growth of 5.4 per cent CAGR with Karangasem outperforming by 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points per annum.
The complete annual market intelligence report including detailed sub-district level visitor data for Sidemen is available to registered Developer Portal members.